The past few weeks make it clear:
– risk along transport routes is increasing
– costs are changing in real time
– carriers are making decisions on the fly
– information is partial
Yet contracts still assume stability.
This is where the real problem emerges:
Incoterms define where risk is transferred.
But they do not define what happens when:
– a route becomes risky
– additional charges are introduced
– a vessel is rerouted
– systems or infrastructure fail
The result:
disputes, delays, and blocked transactions.
That is why we are working on a framework
that complements Incoterms
and makes these situations contractually manageable.
WARF (War Risk Allocation Framework):
– structures geopolitical risk
– allocates additional costs
– provides rules for action during disruption
– enables fast dispute resolution
The goal is not to eliminate risk.
The goal is to prevent it from blocking the transaction.
This is not a theoretical issue.
It is already affecting real deals.
In the next post, I will show
how this works in a real transaction.